Perfect Pairs Blackjack

Perfect Pairs blackjack plays almost exactly like a regular
game of 21. The big difference is the “perfect pairs” side bet,
which offers the opportunity to win a large jackpot. As with
most side bets with large payouts, the house edge is higher than
you’re probably prepared for.

The purpose of this page is to explain how to play Perfect
Pairs blackjack, what the house edge is for both the main game
and for the optional side bet, and the correct basic strategy to
follow while playing.

How to Play

The rules for playing Perfect Pairs are the same as a
standard game. You get two cards. The dealer gets two cards. You
get to hit, stand, double down, etc. You bust if you go over 21,
and the dealer does too.

The only difference is the side bet. This bet is won or lost
separately from your main bet.

You win the main bet by either getting closer to 21 than the
dealer or still being in the hand when the dealer busts.

You win the perfect pairs bet by getting a pair. That sounds
easy enough, but the payout is based on how good your pair is.

Here’s a typical payout table:

• Different colors and different suits: 5 to 1
• Same color but different suits: 10 to 1
• Same color and same suit (the eponymous perfect pair):
  30 to 1

Of course, different casinos will have different payouts. You
might only see 25 to 1 in some casinos for a perfect pair, but
another, more generous property might offer a 35 to 1 payout.
The amounts can vary for the other combinations, too. You might
see 6 to 1 or 12 to 1 payouts instead of 5 to 1 and 10 to 1.

Casinos are experts at manipulating the payouts for some
hands in order to adjust the house edge accordingly. They’ll
compare how many people play at one set of payouts with how much
they’re projected to earn, and they optimize accordingly. They
want the most action with the highest edge. Adjusting the
payouts for the side bets is one way they can accomplish this.

The House Edge

The house edge for the perfect pairs side bet hovers between
2% or and 11%.

You’ll only see a perfect pair come up once in about every 60
hands on average. Depending on what kind of luck you’re having,
you might see it come up a little more often or a lot less
often, but the frequency should hover right around those
numbers.

The house edge for blackjack is hard to calculate, as it’s
based on a large number of situations.

But calculating the house edge for this individual side bet
isn’t hard at all.

You start by calculating the odds of getting each hand and
comparing that with the payout for each hand.

We’ll assume that you’re playing in a game with 8 decks for
purposes of this example.

For the top payout of 30 to 1, you have to calculate the odds
of being dealt a 2nd card that’s the same rank and suit as your
first card. With 8 decks in play, you have 416 cards total, but
one of those has already been dealt. That leaves 415 cards, but
only 7 of them will make your hand. So the probability of
getting a “perfect pair” is 7/415, or about 1 in 59.

• That’s a 1.69% chance of winning 30 units.

For same color but different suits, we use a similar
calculation. You have 415 cards, and 8 cards which will make
your hand. The probability of making this hand is 8/415, or
about 1 in 51.

• That’s a 1.93% chance of winning 10 units.

For the lowest paying hand, which is a pair of different
colors and different suits, we use another similar calculation.
You still have 415 cards, but you still only have 16 cards which
will make your hand. (Some of these cards will make a higher
paying hand, so they don’t factor into the calculation.) The
probability of making this hand is the same as before, 16/415,
or about 1 in 26.

• That’s a 3.86% chance of winning 5 units.

The expected value of each of those payouts can be calculated
by multiplying the percentage chance of hitting the hand by the
payout, as follows:

• 1.69% X 30 = 0.507
• 1.93% X 10 = 0.193
• 3.86% X 5 = 0.193

When you add those 3 possibilities together, you get the
payback percentage for the bet.

• 0.507 + 0.193 + 0.193 = 89.3%.
• Subtract that from 100%, and your house edge is 10.7%.

A casino which offers a higher payout on these hands would
offer a lower house edge. And changing the number of decks would
also affect the payout percentage, for obvious reasons.

Here’s an example of how changing the payout on a hand would
change the house edge:

Suppose you got 35 to 1 instead of 30 to 1. That would change
the expected value on that payout from 0.507 to 0.5915. That’s a
huge difference of about 9%, which would decrease the house edge
to 1.7%, making this a much more reasonable bet.

Here’s an example of how changing the number of decks in play
would change the house edge:

Suppose you have 6 decks in play instead of 8. Instead of a
7/415 chance of hitting your hand, you now have a 5/306 chance
of hitting your hand. That’s a 1.63% chance of hitting the top
paying hand, instead of 1.69%. So the house edge on this side
bet would actually go up with fewer decks in play.

A Simple Strategy for the Perfect Pairs Bet

Be advised that this strategy does nothing to eliminate or
reduce the house edge. It’s just a fun way to take advantage of
the perfect pairs side bet without losing too much money and
still having a chance to hit one of those big payouts.

The idea is to set aside a separate bankroll of betting units
equal to the payout for a perfect pair.

Use that $125 to bet $5 each hand on the perfect pair side
bet until you run out of bankroll or until you hit a perfect
pair and get your 25 to 1 payout.

There’s a reasonable chance you’ll hit a perfect pair at some
point between 1 and 60 hands. If you hit it during the first 25
hands, you’ll have generated a profit, possibly a large one. If
you don’t hit a perfect pair, you’ve only lost $125.

Play your regular blackjack hand as normal, as if you didn’t
have any money put on the perfect pair bet. You’ll use
standard basic strategy to play your normal blackjack hand.
Depending on the other rules variations, you’ll be facing a
house edge of around 1%, maybe less.

Summary

Perfect Pairs Blackjack is a fun little variant with an
interesting side bet with a relatively high house edge. But the
house edge on this bet isn’t much higher than the house edge on
games with comparable high payout bets like roulette—in fact, in
some cases you might even be able to face a slightly lower house
edge than in roulette. It all depends on how much the payouts
are for the various hands.

A simple money management technique that enables you take a
shot at this big payout without risking a huge amount of money
involves setting aside a separate bankroll specifically for that
side bet. By making that amount the equivalent of the payout for
the perfect pairs bet, you give yourself a reasonable chance at
hitting this min-jackpot before you run out of money. The sooner
you get lucky, the more you’ll profit.

But as with any negative expectation bet, you’re going to see
more losses than wins in the long run. Money management
techniques can’t chance the odds of a game, and Perfect Pairs
blackjack is no exception to this rule of thumb.